Progressive Caucus will try to make its disruptive mark in the National Assembly

(Taken from my Monday Briefing 8 July 2024)

Parliament will be the other big but lopsided (in power terms) battleground, effectively starting as from this week in the National Assembly where the MK party of Jacob Zuma, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of Julius Malema and the African Transformation Movement (ATM) of Vuyolwethu Zungula will effectively make up the Official Opposition in the bloc known as the Progressive Caucus (PC). This bloc consists of MK with 58 MPs, the EFF with 39 MPs, and the ATM with 2 MPs for a total of 99 MPs (100 after the UAT this week ditched the GNU for the PC).. Numerically this gives them a quarter of MPs in the 400-member chamber but will be no match for the collective majority of parties that are part of the GNU. The latter make up some 287 MPs (after UAT left the GNU) who are likely to dwarf the Progressive Caucus and vote together on major issue, but not always as we have already witnessed this week when MPs voted for parliamentary candidates to serve on the Judicial Services Commission. In this instance the ANC voted with the parties of the Progressive Caucus for an MK candidate, disgraced former Western Cape Judge President John Hlophe. The other remaining parties like BOSA, ActionSA, and ACDP, will most likely vote independently but, as moderate centrist parties are likely to vote with the GNU parties on most issues against the PC, especially in cases where the GNU parties will need a two-thirds majority on important legislation.

This does not mean the PC will be completely powerless as it will most likely frequently resort to its parties’ proven disruptive strategies that could at times make the National Assembly “ungovernable”. Initially the PC was much bigger and consisted of more parties but most of these abandoned their “principled” objections to joining the GNU and defected to the GNU at the last minute, lured by the promise of possible executive positions, big salaries and perks, and a measure of power. Given their seesawing support between the two groups it’s doubtful any of these small parties really joined the GNU out of political and policy conviction as maintained in their respective election manifestos.

Of the three PC parties, the Mthatha, Eastern Cape-based ATM has the biggest growth potential on paper as this faith-based party was formed with the backing of the South African Council of Messianic Churches in Christ (SACMCC) which in turn has millions of followers. However, these followers failed to vote in support of the ATM in large numbers in the 29 May elections. The MK party still has (limited) growth potential in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and Mpumalanga, while the EFF will remain limited to its various pockets of regional support around the country with its strongest growth potential being centred in Gauteng, North West and Limpopo provinces. However, it also failed to cash in on this potential in the recent elections and may have reached a ceiling.