From my Political Research Note 04/22  15 June 2022

South Africa faces significant risk of more large-scale civil unrest like last year

Increasingly, ominous warnings are being given by various entities that South Africa could again experience destructive riots like those seen in July last year in two provinces. So far, the government has failed to honestly confront the causal factors behind the rapid escalation of last year’s rioting and looting, and to fix the problems. It hides behind a mostly false narrative of a planned insurrection while poverty, unemployment and inequality were the motive issues that drove most of the rioting and looting last year…denied by President Ramaphosa and his government. While many countries around the world have experienced increased levels of protest in recent years, South Africa is no exception, but the underlying causes are specific to this country. The Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have worsened the outlook in South Africa, especially around the worsening cost-of-living crisis in respect of food and fuel/transport costs. In South Africa the general prevailing socio-economic and political conditions provide the overall impetus for civil unrest. But beneath that are many potential causal or trigger factors that could ignite large-scale unrest. We list some of the key ones in this Research Note and conclude that the risk for South Africa of more major civil unrest will remain high for the foreseeable future….

This is the introductory synopsis to a recent Political Research Note I sent to my clients. If you are interested in reading the rest or other similar Research Notes prepared for my clients, or maybe want to read some of my other regular reports such as the Monday Briefing or Southern Africa Risk Report, why not give me a call on 076 647 8235 or send me an email at stefterblanche@telkomsa.net.