Southern Africa RISK REPORT       4 July 2019   No 19/15

In this Risk Report…

South Africa

• SACCI’s confidence index shows marginal optimism; but many negatives can reverse it.
• Danger lurks for Ramaphosa as Zuma/Magashule ‘fightback’ intensifies on many fronts.
• Emboldened by elections, but facing action by the courts, EFF ups its divisive radicalism.
• Time to revisit anti-violence laws as EFF, others propose armed struggle and violence.
• More bad ratings news could await SA in wake of rising concerns.
• Strong left-wing presence in Ramaphosa executive could influence policy.
• COSATU and Ramaphosa face off over Eskom – potential negative consequences.
• Some intensification of labour action anticipated as annual strike season gets underway.
• Perceptions of Naspers’ departure and JSE slump bad for Ramaphosa’s investment bid.
• Struggling DA failing SA’s large liberal political middle ground.
• Low spending priorities, climate change etc. create bleak outlook for SA agriculture.
• Crime also negatively affecting SA agricultural sector.
• South Africans’ confidence in political system and institutions declining.

SADC Countries

• Zimbabwe: Return to local currency causes more uncertainty and brings risk.
• Zimbabwe: Maize shortage adds to the country’s pressures.
• Malawi: Panic after Malawi’s kwacha currency started depreciating rapidly.
• Malawi: Malawi election protesters vow more action on the streets.
• Angola: Luring foreign investors, but power struggles and corruption continue.
• Namibia: Namibia could be facing major public sector strike amidst economic crisis.

To read the full report or subscribe to our reports, please send us an email