Southern Africa Risk Report - 11 March 2022
|
Summary of Key Risks & Outlook
|
In this report: · Volatile 2022 ahead as ANC prepares for December elective conference. · Jockeying for top jobs likely to bring more political instability in governing ANC. · David Mabuza’s first serious move blocked by Ramaphosa but more risk ahead. · Failure to fully beef up NPA means corruption remains a major threat. · The disconnect between Zondo recommendations and prosecutions. · Zondo report potential double-edged sword that could produce political conundrums & instability . · Employment Equity Amendment Bill poses serious dangers. · Defeat of public sector unions could up the stakes for vital social compact re economic recovery and growth. · SA’s international relations to continue strategic geopolitical bias in favour of China, Russia and Cuba. · China tries to buy influence in SA via its military and vaccine donations. · Mozambique: New anti-insurgency strategy for the north, but few trust it. · Zimbabwe: Russian invasion of Ukraine impacts Zimbabwe directly. · Zimbabwe: Abstention in UN vote is doing Zimbabwe no favours. · Zimbabwe: Political repression, intimidation continues. |
South Africa
Volatile 2022 ahead as ANC prepares for December elective conference - With the ANC headed towards an elective national conference in December of this year, a rather volatile political year lies ahead. This was already demonstrated early in the year by the public spats between tourism minister Lindiwe Sisulu on the one hand and President Cyril Ramaphosa, justice minister Ronald Lamola, Deputy Chief Justice Raymond Zondo and members of the ANC's national executive committee on the other. Sisulu’s statements and public attacks had everything to do with her firing the opening salvo in her challenge to Ramaphosa for the leadership of the ANC and the country in December. She was the first challenger to enter the unofficial race against Ramaphosa, but more candidates have started emerging, among them Deputy President David Mabuza (see below). Mabuza has been somewhat under pressure as past allegations of crimes dating back to his premiership in Mpumalanga have been returning to haunt him. His attempt to move from the Presidency to the ANC secretary-general’s office – a powerful place from which to launch an election bid - was also blocked by Ramaphosa. Others that are eyeing Top 6 office-bearer positions are Paul Mashatile (current Treasurer General) and Gwede Mantashe (current National Chair). The faction supporting Jacob Zuma has also launched its first move against Ramaphosa in the form of SCOPA member and Zuma acolyte Mervyn Dirks’ challenge to Ramaphosa to appear before SCOPA in connection with alleged tape-recorded remarks in which Ramaphosa ostensibly acknowledged that the ANC had been abusing state funds. The majority ANC members of SCOPA – who support Ramaphosa - blocked the proposal. Disgraced former health minister Zweli Mkhize is also said to be in the running for a position, backed by considerable support in KwaZulu-Natal. Meanwhile the very powerful position of secretary-general is likely to be hotly contested after the present incumbent, Ace Magashule, was forced to step aside as he went on trial for corruption, while his deputy, who briefly acted in his place, Jesse Duarte, has been off-sick for several months. So far, a dominant faction supports the re-election of Ramaphosa, but expect more challengers emerging in coming months while related developments could have a destabilising impact on the governing party and parts of government.
Jockeying for top jobs likely to bring more political instability in governing ANC– As referenced above, a volatile political year lies ahead as aspiring candidates for ANC president and other top jobs start jockeying for position ahead of the ANC’s elective national conference in December. In the ANC particularly old and new divisions could emerge as factions align behind their preferred candidates. It appears that at present the dominant faction getting into position for this race, is one that backs President Cyril Ramaphosa for a second term. Should he be re-elected, that would normally also lead to a second term for him as president of the country, but this is not guaranteed, especially within a volatile, divided ANC...
No comments:
Post a Comment