Posted 15 February 2024

THE ONE BIG QUESTION WE SHOULD BE ASKING OURSELVES IN A DANGEROUS ELECTION YEAR

So, the latest two reputable opinion polls on support for parties with a view to the coming elections, both peg the ANC’s support at below 40%. It now starts looking like a foregone conclusion that the ANC will be ousted from governing by itself, forced into the opposition benches or a coalition with another party/parties. However, some important questions and possible trends that deserve attention:
-         Who will the ANC partner with in a coalition – the DA/MPC, EFF or a collection of smaller parties?
-         Will an ANC/EFF partnership steer the country and its government towards more autocratic radicalism?
-         Democracy is in retreat/decline everywhere - will the trend towards ever lower voter turnouts in SA elections continue, especially in respect of SA’s youth who increasingly see no point in elections?
-         Will a low voter turnout benefit the ANC and DA (but still not to previous support levels) and be bad for the EFF, as is being predicted? And vice versa?
-         Will a high voter turnout indicate bigger youth participation that will elevate the EFF to the level of challenging the DA for the role of official opposition?
-         Will the ANC lose power in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal as the polls currently seem to suggest? If so, to which party/parties?
-         How safe and assured is the DA’s control of the Western Cape?
-         Will these elections be a defining maturity event for our democracy in that the ANC, if it loses, will gracefully accept defeat, go to the opposition benches, or form a governing coalition?
Clearly, this election year poses significant risk in SA. Democracy is in decline around the world, here too; especially the youth increasingly see no point in elections and would forego them in exchange for better delivery around issues such as jobs, education, housing; and we have a ruling party desperately fighting with its back to the wall after not having faced any serious challenge for power these past 30 years. The ANC also still views itself as the only true, legitimate representative of “the people”. Lately some ANC leaders, including Ramaphosa, have dangerously hinted that the election outcome could be manipulated by foreign actors – especially Israel - who seek regime change in SA. Could that pre-justify a post-election refusal to accept a defeat? The Trump playbook?
So, here’s the one big question we should be asking ourselves but from which we have all been shying away – perhaps because its possible answer is too ghastly to contemplate. That question is: what will happen if the ANC is resoundingly defeated in the elections, but it refuses to accept defeat and tries to cling to power illegally?
For more, read my article on the Democracy Development Programme (DDP) website at https://ddp.org.za/blog/2024/02/09/will-south-africas-democracy-survive-2024-unscathed/